Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s destruction driven by climate change

Driven by the extraction and burning of coal, oil and gas, 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history and the hottest for Australia’s oceans. Month after record-breaking month, climate scientists are raising the alarm that we are living in a world that is hotter, wetter and more turbulent with extreme weather events happening more frequently and with frightening intensity.

So, what role is climate pollution playing in the dangerous and destructive weather that communities across northern NSW and southeast Queensland are dealing with? Let’s take a look.

Hotter oceans power more ferocious storms

Tropical cyclones have always been part of life for many people in Australia and the Pacific, but climate change is making them more ferocious and destructive.

In our rapidly changing climate, tropical cyclones form in a world that is warmer, wetter, and more energetic than before. Oceans on Australia’s east coast are exceptionally hot, and these conditions provide more fuel for extreme winds, intense rainfall and larger storms.

Tropical cyclones intensify more quickly, reach stronger wind speeds, and dump more rain. They may also retain their strength for longer, and move more slowly – meaning they linger longer over a given area, causing more damage. Riding upon sea levels that are 20cm higher due to unrelenting burning of fossil fuels, they can also bring even more dangerous storm surges and coastal flooding. 

Risk of flooding damage is greater due to climate change 

For people living in southeast Queensland and northern NSW right now, these climate pollution-fuelled conditions feel like being hit by a wall of water and wind.  Over a 24 hour period between March 9-10, Brisbane received a record-breaking 230 millimetres of rainfall, while Lower Springbrook in southeast Queensland recorded a staggering 814mm between March 3-9 (80% of Brisbane’s average annual rainfall) and Lowanna on the Mid-North Coast in NSW received 659mm over the same period.

Storm surge and heavy rainfall events are both destructive and dangerous. These conditions, particularly when they occur together, pose serious flooding and blackout risks for communities in southeast Queensland and northern NSW. As Cyclone Alfred made landfall, more than 330,000 properties and businesses lost power.

If climate pollution is costing us now, what’s around the corner?

Global heating is reducing the total number of cyclones, however the ones that do form are likely to be more severe and damaging. As our oceans continue heating up, scientists fear they could track further south on the east coast hitting unprepared and heavily populated communities. The vast majority of homes and infrastructure in southeast Queensland are not built to withstand cyclones.

Australians are already facing more dangerous fire conditions, longer, hotter and more frequent heatwaves and flooding rainfall events due to pollution from coal, oil and gas, which is overheating our planet. That’s costing all of us, with insurance bills going through the roof. Australians are paying $30 billion more today on insurance than they were only 10 years ago – more than double the average rate of inflation.

One of the most uncomfortable realities of Cyclone Alfred is that, according to climate science, it looms as a prelude to a more dangerous future.

Want to learn more about the influence of climate pollution on tropical cyclones? Download our updated factsheet. 

The bottom line…

Climate pollution, caused by burning coal, oil and gas, is driving more ferocious extreme weather events like Cyclone Alfred.

Australia is now cutting pollution, but it is not fast or far enough. We must slash climate pollution to prevent the problem from getting worse, as well as prepare communities and our infrastructure for the disasters we cannot avoid.