Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce is proposing to abandon Australia’s foundational climate change policy, the target of net zero climate pollution by 2050. Yet Mr Joyce is almost never challenged on the enormous consequences of his agenda.
Decades of burning coal, oil and gas have driven global temperatures higher – unleashing more dangerous heat, extreme weather and spiralling costs. Without a target, Australia’s climate pollution would accelerate indefinitely, fuelling further heating and bringing more disasters. Deloitte Access Economics estimates the cost for Australians would be $4.2 trillion by 2070.
Scrapping our 2050 climate target is aligned with global heating of likely more than 3ºC – which would have catastrophic impacts on Australians, including:
- Supercharged bushfires and floods: Extreme fire days would double, while extreme rainfall could become 21-84% more intense for short-duration events (over an hour or less) and 6-45% more intense for longer ones (over a day or less).
- More extreme heat: Days above 50°C would occur regularly in Sydney and Melbourne, while Queensland could endure heatwaves for almost one-third of the year, pushing people and infrastructure beyond their limits.
- Coastal collapse: A projected sea-level rise of around 1 metre by 2100 would put 160,000 to 250,000 Australian properties at risk of flooding and erosion, with storm surges and cyclones adding further damage.
- Insurance crisis: By 2100 8.8% of Australian homes would be uninsurable due to high exposure to worsening disasters and rising sea levels, leaving households, businesses and entire communities financially exposed.
- Reef destruction: Coral reefs including the Great Barrier Reef would die, and with them the marine ecosystems that support the tourism and fishing industries. Globally 1 billion people rely on coral reefs for their livelihoods.
- Food insecurity: Agriculture would suffer sharp declines, with crop yields falling – oil seeds down ~35%, wheat down ~18%, fruits and vegetables down ~14% – while livestock productivity plummets under heat stress and water scarcity.
- Global consequences: The likely loss of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets would trigger several metres of sea-level rise over time, threatening coastlines and displacing millions worldwide.
- Economic backlash: Australian exports could be hit with tariffs and sanctions as Australia loses global credibility with key trading partners.
Abandoning net zero is not a neutral policy choice. It is a decision to lock Australia into a catastrophic 3°C-plus future – one of more fires, floods and heat; collapsing ecosystems and food systems; and spiralling costs to households, communities and the economy.
Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!
