New Analysis: The Albanese Government’s fossil fuel approvals

Despite championing climate action during the 2025 Federal Election, one of the re-elected Albanese Government’s first acts was the proposed approval of a 45-year extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas export project – Australia’s second most polluting fossil fuel extraction project.

Now, as the Albanese Government prepares to set Australia’s pivotal 2035 climate target, it has once again facilitated a flurry of fossil fuel developments.

Fossil fuel projects approved during the Albanese Government’s second term:

In their first term, the Albanese Government approved 27 new coal, oil and gas developments. The four new approvals this term brings the total to 31. 

Lifetime pollution from these 31 projects, directly and from combustion of the coal and gas they produce, is expected to exceed 6.5 billion tonnes of CO₂-e. That’s equivalent to about one-eighth of global annual emissions, about 15 years of Australia’s current emissions, or 159 years of the emissions from all of Australia’s cars and utes.

But there are even more projects seeking Federal government approval. There are currently 38 further new or expanded coal mines seeking Federal Government approvals, with a potential lifetime production of over 5.7 billion tonnes of product coal – equivalent to more than 14 years of Australia’s current coal production². These projects present a substantial risk to achieving both Australia’s climate targets and global goals of keeping warming well below 2ºC.

Australia’s fossil fuel exports are a globally-significant source of pollution

Australia is the world’s third-largest fossil fuel exporter based on energy content, and the second largest by climate pollution content. Each year, Australia exports 2.5 tonnes of climate pollution for every tonne of pollution released in Australia. These emissions – no matter where they’re emitted – harm Australians by heating the global climate and exacerbating extreme weather events.

While most emissions from Australian fossil fuel projects occur overseas, these projects also represent a significant drag on Australia’s domestic decarbonisation efforts. Fossil fuel extraction is one of Australia’s most polluting sectors. Fossil fuel projects cause significant direct pollution, both from the diesel used for machinery and trucks, and the escape of ‘fugitive’ emissions previously locked in coal and gas deposits. In 2035 the sector is expected to emit 62 Mt CO₂-e, about 21% of our total emissions, or more than the emissions from every car, ute and truck in 2035.

A national target includes all sectors. If the fossil fuel export industry grows and takes up more of our national target, it means that other sectors need to do more work in meeting that target.

Impact on Australia’s 2035 targets 

Since forming government in 2022, the Albanese Government has approved coal, oil and gas projects which would directly emit 12.8 million tonnes of climate pollution in 2035, or 9.8 million tonnes if expected on-site abatement occurs³. This pollution impact is similar to all of Australia’s domestic flights in 2035, which are expected to release 11 million tonnes of pollution.

This excludes the emissions impact of five coal mines and four gas projects where proponent supplied emissions data could not be accessed. Disclosing expected emissions is not required under the current EPBC Act. 

This pollution will have an impact on Australia’s 2035 target. Currently, the target is expected to be set within a range of a 65% to 75% reduction on 2005 emissions, in-line with the Climate Change Authority’s (CCA) interim advice. The climate pollution from these developments is equivalent to 1.6 to 2.1 percentage points in our eventual 2035 target. 

Put simply, the starting point for our 2035 emissions reduction target could be up to two percentage points higher (i.e. closer to net zero), had the Albanese Government followed the clear scientific basis and stopped approving new and extended fossil fuel production. The CCA has indicated it is considering its target advice on a ‘line-by-line’ basis, suggesting that the Albanese Government’s approvals are likely to weigh on its advice. 

The Safeguard Mechanism doesn’t neutralise these emissions

The Albanese Government has often claimed that the climate impacts of new and expanded fossil fuel projects are managed under the Safeguard Mechanism, and therefore innocuous. In reality, the Safeguard Mechanism doesn’t address these project’s domestic emissions. 

This analysis has included the impact of the Safeguard Mechanism, finding it would only reduce the climate pollution released by these projects by less than one-quarter in 2035. These new projects will still represent more than 9.8 million tonnes of CO₂-e emissions in 2035.

The Safeguard Mechanism does not properly address climate pollution from fossil fuel projects. In reality, it just requires projects to offset the share of their pollution which is above a certain ‘baseline’ level. It never requires projects to reduce their actual on-site emissions.

Australia’s climate laws do not govern project approvals. The Safeguard Mechanism only applies after a project is operating, and there is no federal law that allows a coal or gas project to be stopped because of its climate harm.

That’s why the Safeguard Mechanism cannot be used as a justification for approving fossil fuel projects. Every new coal and gas development adds more pollution — and more climate risk.

Fossil fuel developments approved under the Albanese Government

Approved coal projects:

Approved oil and gas projects:

Offshore exploration permits issued:

9 exploration permits were issued by the Resources Minister:

• Esso (ExxonMobil): 3x Otway Basin, 1x Sorell Basin
• Beach Energy – 1x Otway Basin
• Chevron – 1x Northern Carnarvon Basin (WA) 
• Melbana – 1x Northern Carnarvon Basin (WA) 
• Woodside – 1x Northern Carnarvon Basin (WA)
• Inpex – 1x Bonaparte Basin (NT)

¹ Total emissions over approved project life in CO₂ equivalent terms. Estimates based on proponent documents – see appendix. Includes on-site emissions, emissions from coal or gas combustion in Australia and overseas, and other indirect emissions.
² Black coal production, Australian Energy Statistics 2024, Table i
³ On-site abatement is estimated based on current DCCEEW projections. By 2035, the Safeguard Mechanism is expected to incentivise reductions in direct emissions from oil and gas projects by 22.9%, and coal projects by 23.5% (including both fugitive emissions and on-site energy use). These projections are highly uncertain and based only on early post-reform data. Assuming this reduction applies homogeneously across relevant projects in 2035 would reduce the impact on 2035 emissions by 0.5 percentage points, to 1.6% of 2005 emissions.

Climate Council has launched a petition calling on the Australian Government to set the strongest possible 2035 climate target – and take urgent action to meet it!