The Australian Government is weeks away from setting Australia’s critical 2035 target, and finalising our second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This briefing paper outlines the process, science, policy and political context behind Australia’s upcoming NDC.
Australia’s action on climate change matters
Climate change is a shared and severe threat to Australia, the Pacific, and nations globally. Worsening heat, bushfires, floods, storms and rising seas are pushing communities to the brink. The Pacific is especially at risk. Our region’s safety, security and prosperity depends on how quickly we can drive down climate pollution this decade.
Australia is amongst the world’s highest per-capita polluters, and the second-largest exporter of polluting fossil fuels (by emissions). Australia’s actions today will shape the severity of future climate change and its impacts in our region.
To keep communities safer from climate change, Australia must set the strongest possible 2035 target, achieve this target by growing renewable power and switching from fossil energy to electricity and other zero-emission options, and begin a phase out of fossil fuels, starting with an end to all new and expanded fossil fuel projects.
Australia’s 2035 target will be set within weeks
The Albanese Government’s Climate Change Minister, Chris Bowen, has indicated that the 2035 target will be set by the end of September. The target can only be set once the Government receives advice from the independent Climate Change Authority.
Originally expected to be released in 2024, the Climate Change Authority has now been preparing its advice for over 18 months. In 2024 the CCA published a draft target range of 65-75% reduction in climate pollution, compared to Australia’s climate pollution level in 2005. It is not yet clear whether this advice will be publicly released prior to the target being announced.
The safety of our communities requires a very strong 2035 target
Analysis commissioned by the Climate Council shows that net zero by 2035 is the only target available to Australia with a strong chance of contributing to holding global warming below 2°C. Because Australia has a fossil fuel intensive economy and was slow to address its climate pollution the science aligned reduction curve is now very steep. Australia would need to take on other actions beyond the domestic target, like tackling our fossil fuel exports, to contribute to the global task of holding global warming below 1.5°C.
The Australian community and businesses back a stronger 2035 target
The Australian community, businesses and civil society actors have called for targets between 75% and net zero. Over 500 businesses have joined a coalition calling for a climate target of at least 75%. Civil society organisations – including science, social services and environmental groups – have backed a net zero target by 2035. Meanwhile, four independent pathways, published by Climate Analytics, Climate Council, the CSIRO and Climateworks demonstrate that targets of 75% and above by 2035 are feasible.
The Albanese Government holds a historic majority and has a clear path for strong climate action
The Albanese Government first came to power in 2022, having won an election where climate change was the defining issue. In their first term, the Albanese Government improved Australia’s climate policy – making progress on renewable power, introducing a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, tightening regulations on big industrial polluters, and setting a stronger 2030 climate target (a 43% reduction on 2005 levels).
At this year’s federal election, the government was returned to power with a historically-large majority. The opposing Coalition, which promised to unwind Australia’s 2030 target and slash climate policies, had its vote reduced to record-low levels. As a result, the potential for climate action in Australia’s Parliament has never been stronger, with 69% of the lower house and a clear majority of the upper house held by supportive MPs and Senators. With clear electoral and legislative support, the imperative is on the Albanese Government to act.
Despite progress in the first term, the Albanese Government’s credibility on climate change is faltering
One of the re-elected Albanese Government’s first acts was the proposed approval of a 45 year extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas export project – Australia’s second most polluting fossil fuel project.
In their first term, the Albanese Government approved 27 new coal, oil and gas developments. A further four approvals this term has brought the total to 31. These projects have an expected lifetime emissions impact of more than 6.5 billion tonnes CO₂-e, equivalent to one-eighth of annual global emissions, or 15 years of Australia’s current emissions. The domestic climate pollution generated from these projects will make it hard to reach our 2035 target, and contribute to more warming globally.
Australia stands at a crossroads
A strong 2035 climate target is an opportunity to invest in the collective safety and prosperity of our region. A stronger target, with clear plans to meet that target, will better protect our communities from the ravages of the climate crisis. Deloitte modelling has also found that a target of 75% opens up substantial economic opportunities for Australia in new clean industries. A timid target exposes our communities to greater risk.
The Paris Agreement is only as strong as the countries that participate. A strong target from Australia generates momentum for stronger targets from others, while a weaker target only dampens ambition. It is in Australia’s national interests, and the interests of our neighbours to swiftly slash climate pollution.
For more information
Contact Isabella Lamshed – isabella@climatecouncil.org.au or +61 434 712 105
¹ For Australia, reaching net zero by 2035 and a 75% reduction by 2030 is aligned with a two-thirds chance of limiting warming to 1.9ºC above pre-industrial levels. Analysis is based on a per-capita fair share of the remaining carbon budget.