Australia is a fire prone country and has always experienced bushfires, but climate change is making hot days hotter, and heatwaves longer and more frequent, and seeing increasing drought conditions in Australia’s southeast. For example:

• Rainfall since August has been below average to very much below average across most of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, with South Australia recording its driest October on record.
• Record warmth in October across much of Southern Australia has caused rapid drawing of moisture from the landscape which is raising expectations of high fire danger in the south eastern states.
• Tasmania has experience an above average run of monthly and maximum and minimum temperatures and dry conditions.

These hotter, drier conditions are increasing the risk of high fire danger weather as demonstrated by heightened bushfire risk outlooks in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania in 2014.

For the first time ever, the Bushfire and Natural Hazard CRC (Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre) has reassessed and rereleased its bushfire seasonal outlook for the 2014-15 bushfire season just three months after its initial release. More parts of south eastern Australia are now expected to experience above normal fire conditions. This is a result of unseasonable hot, dry conditions in Australia’s southeast.

The bushfire outlook map has also been redrawn to cover a wider geographical area in the south of Australia.

Read on to learn about the particular risks of increasing bushfire threat in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

Bushfire threat in Victoria (Higher risk, wider area)

• Victoria originally had a bushfire outlook for the 2014-15 bushfire season that was ‘above normal’ this has now been upgraded to ‘major’.
• All Victorian districts except the Mallee and East Gippsland may expect above normal fire potential.
• The continuation of dry conditions in all districts except East Gippsland, coupled with an increased likelihood of an earlier start to the season, has extended the above normal outlook beyond the geographic extent advised in September.

Bushfire threat in South Australia (higher risk, much earlier than usual)

• Above normal fire conditions in South Australia are expected in many parts of the state.
• Including in the North West Pastoral, West Coast, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Flinders and Mid North districts, The Yorke Peninsula, Mount Lofty Ranges, Upper South East and Lower South East districts
• South Australia is currently experiencing a level of bushfire threat normally only experienced in February (according to the South Australia Country Fire Service).

Bushfire threat in Tasmania

• Tasmania has already experienced bushfires and on 28 September Tasmania experienced the earliest total fire ban since 1987.
• The central part of the east coast extending into Fingal continues to have above normal fire season potential.
• Without an improvement in conditions, the area from St Helens down to Marion Bay and through the Midlands and lower Derwent Valley are all likely to have above normal potential at the beginning of summer.